The Emergence of Peer Competitors: A Framework for Analysis Book

The potential emergence of a peer competitor is probably the most importantlong-term planning challenge for the Department of Defense. This reportaddresses the issue by developing a conceptual framework of how a proto-peer(meaning a state that is not yet a peer but has the potential to become one)might interact with the hegemon (the dominant global power). The centralaspect of the framework is an interaction between the main strategies forpower aggregation available to the proto-peer and the main strategies forcountering the rise of a peer available to the hegemon. Then, usingexploratory modeling techniques, the pathways of the various proto-peer andhegemon interactions are modeled to identify the specific patterns andcombinations of actions that might lead to rivalries. The dominant powerhas an array of options available to limit the growth of its rivals or tochange their ultimate intentions. Too confrontational a strategy, however,risks making a potential neutral power into a foe, while too conciliatory astance may speed the growth of a competitor. Exploratory modeling suggestswhich attributes of the countries are most important and the sensitivity ofthe dominant power to perception errors.Read More